Since 1991, Iraq has been compelled to allow inspections of all sites requested by the United Nations Inspection Team, a group that has had American members from the very beginning. During the Persian Gulf War, Iraq had shown its ingenuity in manufacturing weapons forbidden by treaty. These included chemical weapons, containing toxic bacteriological material as well as nuclear weapons and the missiles to launch all three. What has been taking place seven years after the fighting stopped has all the trappings of an Arab revolt. While the United States assured its Arab allies that the isolation of Iraq would change Baghdad's behavior, the only tangible effect of the campaign has been the widespread suffering of the Iraqi people from the sanctions imposed by Security Council Resolution 686. Arab critics also advance the view that the United States has not honored its commitment to act in an evenhanded manner in promoting a broader Arab-Israeli settlement. Israel has agreed to trade land for peace as part of the settlement process. However, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu must first assure himself and his fragile coalition in the Knesset that Israel's security has not been compromised. Assurances along these lines have been moving slowly with terrorist bombs from Hamas in the foreground and grandiose expectations in the PLO background. In 1991, Yasser Arafat was quick to announce PLO support for Saddam Hussein. The scene is no different today. Women demonstrating in Baghdad have invited Hussein to drop his bombs and/or missiles on Tel Aviv.

The Republic of Iraq was once part of the Ottoman Empire. Following the defeat of the Ottomans at the end of World War I, the United Kingdom put Iraq under a British mandate installing Amir Faisal as king in 1921. At that time, the British knew there was oil present but no one knew just how much oil there really was in Iraq. Effectively, Iraq was created out of land that had been conquered by the Ottomans with no defined boundaries. For administrative purposes, Ottoman Iraq was divided into three central eyalets of Mosul, Baghdad, and Basra. These three provinces only roughly reflected the geographic, linguistic, and religious divisions of Ottoman Iraq. Kurds and non-Arabs lived in the northwest. Iraq was largely Muslim; the Shiite Arabs lived in the south, while the north was predominantly Sunni. The monarchy ruled Iraq until 1958, when there was a series of coups and countercoups. Finally, by virtue of aligning himself with the military, Saddam Hussein succeeded to the position of president. In the 1970s, power began to solidify behind the Baath Socialist Party headed by Hussein, partly from the use of force and partly from the sale of oil.

Were it not for oil and water, Iraq would be a small nation of the Middle East. On August 2, 1990 Iraq invaded Kuwait and was driven out by armed forces marshaled by President George Bush. Even before this violation of international law by Saddam Hussein, Iraq had been at war with Iran from about 1980 to 1988. The bloody and drawn out battles that lasted the next eight years killed hundreds of thousands on both sides, and the war ended in 1988 very much in the way it was fought-stalemate. Iraq made no secret of its intention to obtain nuclear weapons, having purchased a plant from the French. Israeli aircraft destroyed this plant in 1981, setting Iraq's nuclear ambitions by many years. During this period, a great many American companies sold so-called dual-use products to Iraq. One example was a helicopter sold to Iraq and identified as one for the use of civilians for transportation. It was seen, however, being used in the war against the Americanized forces in 1991. As a direct result of the Iraqi invasion of Kuwait, the United Nations Security Council adopted resolutions with strict sanctions. Iraq was not allowed to sell its oil on any market. However, Iraq is probably the second largest oil producer in the world, second only to Saudi Arabia.

During the Gulf War, allied aircraft bombed Iraq with considerable damage to the Iraqi military's command, control, and communications network. In mid-January, 1991 allied troops launched the ground war. By February 27th, A ceasefire agreement was signed by the United States and Iraq and the latter agreed to accept certain obligations all spelled out in various resolutions of the United Nations Security Council. Among other obligations, the Iraqis agreed to cooperate with the Rolph Ikeus, chairman of the agency set up to keep track of nuclear weapons. Evidence gathered failed to show Iraqi possession of any nuclear weapons, but their technology was quite close to a dangerous level. Some evidence of a capability of producing nerve gas was found, and the Iraqis were also fairly advanced in the production of chemical warfare agents. Unfortunately, Iraq continued to pursue its warfare against the Kurds of Iraq, many of whom were able to move over the border into Turkey. In fact, six years after the ceasefire, Iraq was still a military power and still refusing to comply with Security Council resolutions. Notwithstanding, the Security Council agreed to allow the sale of oil from Iraq in the amount of $4 billion, all of this for humanitarian uses. Saddam Hussein is still in full control of the Iraqi military. He has never hesitated at brutally eliminating opposition, so none has publicly surfaced.

Iraq has proven oil reserves estimated at between 100 billion and 122 billion barrels. Its reserves are distributed among 73 known fields, only 15 of which have so far developed. No export of any of this oil may be sold until Iraq complies with various resolutions of the United Nations Security Council. Two major rivers, the Tigris and Euphrates, flowed around Baghdad, the capital of Iraq. Ever since 1984, Iraq and Syria have sought to settle their quarrel with Turkey. That country has built the Ataturk Dam and impounding the water flowing into these two rivers where they arise within Turkey. Under the Protocol of 1987, Turkey has undertaken to supply a monthly average flow of 500 million cubic meters at the Turkish-Syrian border, until the "filling up" of the Ataturk Dam is completed.

Iraq

Iraq maintains that it has "acquired rights" relating to its "ancestral irrigation" on the Tigris and Euphrates Rivers. According to Iraq there are two dimensions of acquired rights. One outlines the fact that for thousands of years these rivers have given life to the to the inhabitants of Mesopotamia and thus constitute an acquired right for its people. Therefore, no upstream riparian country is entitled to take away the rights of these inhabitants. The second dimension of acquired rights stems from the existing irrigation and water installations built in reliance on water. Iraq has some 1.9 million hectares of agricultural land in the Euphrates Basin, including the ancestral irrigation left from Sumerian times. Syria has a different approach. It claims acquired rights, even though Syria was never a country before the Ottoman Empire ended in 1919. Additionally, Syria claims that the waters from these rivers must be shared among the riparian states according to a quota to be determined. The rivers are international water courses which must be described as "shared resources." Turkey understandably differs from both Syria and Iraq. The idea of sharing the common resources through a mathematical formula represents a complete contradiction with the principle of "equitable utilization" which is the core of codification exercise in this field. Additionally, Syria has argued that Turkey has delivered Syria polluted water out of the share permitted by the Protocol of 1987. Turkey has further argued that neither Syria nor Iraq has the amount of irrigible land claimed by both. The Euphrates River flows first through Syria and the Tigris River flows entirely through Iraq, but they join at the Shattal-Arab before flowing in to the Persian Gulf. These rivers are also joined by a manmade Charter Canal within Iraq. This water dispute may yet be argued before the International Court of Justice. However, neither Iraq nor Syria have much interest in that court. Turkey controls the water.

Oil is another matter. The Organization of Oil Exporting Countries (OPEC) was organized by oil-rich Arab states in 1960. Its primary objective was to protect the price of oil. The majors had driven them to this point, where the Arabs were losing control of prices. The five founding members -- Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Iran, Kuwait, and Venezuela -- controlled 80 percent of the world's crude oil exports. It was not until 1973 that the power of OPEC was used successfully by its founders. In 1973, President Nixon was beginning to sense the problems that were to flow from Watergate. The Saturday Night Massacre had seen the firing of an attorney general and the resignation of the special counsel. In another part of the world, Syria and Egypt invaded Israel in the Yom Kippur War of October, 1973. The surprise was so total that Henry Kissinger believed Israel might be overrun unless the United States got munitions to Israel in a way that did not anger the OPEC Arabs. The Soviet Union was shipping supplies to both Egypt and Syria, so a case could be made for the proposition that the United States had to protect its position in the Middle East, even if it meant arming Israel. Other OPEC members were not pleased with anything less that a complete oil embargo against the United States. In fact, Iraq had walked out of the meeting because its oil minister didn't get the embargo he wanted least, not until later. When the embargo was finally imposed, oil prices took off. There was also panic at the American pump. Prices increased fourfold, to $11.65 a barrel never to return to the old level. In fact, the price was to increase even further in 1979, the year of the Second Oil Shock.

Iran had become a Moslem state with its own ayatollah in charge, hysterically addressing the students who believed every word he used.. Even though Iran had been joined by Saudi Arabia in seeing price moderation as good policy, others were planning action. Kuwait was one member of OPEC with its own ideas. However, one factor had been ignored by all members. The importing states launched a campaign to manufacture energy-efficient automobile engines and appliances. Price controls on oil continued even after Nixon resigned because of Watergate. Furthermore, the search for oil continued around the world. In 1969, Phillips drilled a hole in the North Sea and brought in a huge oil field. The Brent oil field in the North Sea had an estimated 270 billion tons, or about 355,000,000 barrels. In 1963, the Shah outlined a six-point reform program he grandly called the White Revolution. Its goals were to create a literacy corps, establish suffrage for women, nationalize forest and water resources -- Mossadeq had nationalized oil in 1954 -- and introduce employee profit sharing in industry. The White Revolution succeeded in alienating just about all interest groups. The clergy opposed it as being inconsistent with the Koran. Overall, it was shoddily planned and haphazardly carried out. The peasants, for example, lost a great deal. Each member of a peasant family was given 25 acres of land, a hopelessly inefficient parcel. Furthermore, the new owners lacked the requisite tools and know-how to deal with the new responsibility given them. Up until this land reform, landlords provided whatever was needed by the peasants working the land. Nine of Iran's most powerful mullahs sharply criticized the Shah. Ayatollah Khomeini openly criticized the Shah from Qom. The Shah had him arrested, brought to Teheran for torture and expelled from Iran. He lived in Paris, returning in triumph to Teheran in 1979.

In 1964, the Majlis or Parliament of Iran passed a bill giving American military personnel and their dependents full diplomatic immunity. Described as the Status of Forces Agreement in the United States and the Capitulation's Agreement in Iran, it came before Parliament after an intense campaign by the American Embassy. The reaction in Iran was bitter. The Capitulation's Agreement meant that any crime committed by an employee -- or any of his dependents -- of the U.S. Department of Defense working in Iran could not be prosecuted under Iranian law. Even if the United States chose not to prosecute, the Iranian government could not take the case. Two weeks after this bill became law, the United States extended a $200 million loan to Iran specifically for the purchase of military equipment. The Iranian public felt doubly betrayed. Once again, their national sovereignty had been sold to an outside power. President Lyndon Johnson expressed admiration for what the Shah was trying to do. However, in the United States by early 1973 was facing an energy crisis during the Nixon presidency. The Yom Kippur War made a precarious situation even worse. Saudi Arabia and the OPEC nations agreed on a price increase and a reduction in production. While the Shah did not participate in the oil embargo, it spearheaded the price increase to about $12 per barrel. OPEC states agreed to this doubling of the posted price, and Washington never forgave the Shah. Iran and the other members of OPEC had another problem. Spending their new oil wealth. From 1973 to 1975, Iran went on a spending spree changing its economy to reflect the new spending power. This new power distorted local institutions, the social structure, the economy and the outlook of the people who still got next to nothing from all this oil wealth. The Shah only said it was being spent to improve living conditions. Like all central planning decisions, the Shah's plans completely failed to put money in the hands of the peasants. Most of them migrated to the cities in search of work.

However, it was not until 1975 that Great Britain finally saw the oil from the North Sea. For that country, it cushioned the effect of the Second Oil Shock. The Shah of Iran was modernizing its economy and alienating the mullahs in the process. The Shah could not imagine being on the losing side of a bitter struggle with the clerics. In 1979, an illness, cancer, compelled the Shah to seek medical attention in the United States. A year earlier, Ayatollah Khomeini had been expelled from Iran; the Baathist regime of Saddam Hussein in Baghdad had to worry about its Shiite population. During this period of escalating chaos, the oil industry in Iran faced strikes of laborers and technicians. There was also a rising level of discontent in Iran fueled by Khomeini in Paris; he spoke to the masses using tapes played on the state-owned radio. By the end of 1978, 4.5 million of oil exports from Iran stopped. Finally, on January 16, 1979 the Shah left Iran for the last time. His departure was celebrated by the Iranian masses, some of whom had suffered at the hands of the Shah's secret service, Savak. The Shah's departure was the beginning of the Second Oil Shock; the First had occurred in 1973 with reduced shipments of oil and panic. The Second Oil Shock was worse but fueled by panic and fears of a permanent shortage. The importing oil companies bought a lot more of today's oil, because the knew prices would rise. In fact, the oil companies bought oil far in excess of anticipated consumption. The rush to fill inventories resulted in the purchase of about 5 million barrels a day of extra demand. Panic buying drove the price of oil to $34 per barrel, almost 300 percent more that it had been since 1974. The United States did not suffer a real shortage; Saudi Arabia diverted more oil to Aramco. Japan, however, took a major hit and had to scramble to find oil to fuel its humming economy. In the meeting of March, 1979 OPEC told its members they could charge whatever price they could get. It was a "free-for-all." At the domestic end of the line, President Carter was blamed for the oil shortages, and even worse, the gas lines at service stations around the country. Some OPEC countries continued to reduce their output to keep prices high. Iraq extended its oil embargo to Egypt. Anwar Sadat had just signed the Camp David Agreements of 1978, and Iraq bitterly opposed any peace with Israel.

On November, 4, 1979 Iranian students occupied the American embassy in Teheran. The grievance of the occupiers was the Shah; only a few days earlier, he had been admitted to a New York hospital under an assumed name.

In early October, 1979 the Soviet Union invaded Afghanistan These events and a meeting in Caracas of OPEC opened the oil producers to the charge they were losing touch with reality. The average price of oil was then $32 a barrel with oil being sold on the spot market at even higher prices. A worldwide recession then brought prices down, but there was more to come. In mid1980, Iraq attacked Iran in a war that was to last until 1988 and cost the lives of over 1.5 million soldiers on both sides.Saddam Hussein struck hard at Iran's oil facilities in Abadan and Ahwaz, seriously damaging them The Iranians counterattacked choking off Iraqi pipeline and exports via the Persian Gulf. In its initial phases, the Iraq-Iran war removed about 4 million barrels of oil per day from the world market, and the spot price of oil hit $42 a barrel and panic buying took off again. However, by November of 1980 consumption was declining, so it made sales of oil inventories more useful, even at a loss. And Saudi Arabia was increasing its OPEC quota by 900,000 barrels a day. Finally, by 1981, the oil producers rationalized price by fixing it at $34 per barrel. Worldwide inflation was the cost of all this, and the Federal Reserve Bank had raised interest rates to 21.5 percent. Western governments were not without remedies for inflation. They could and did encourage oil importers to dump inventories of oil to bring prices down to a level more consistent with a collapse in demand. And non-OPEC oil was being sold on the world market. Finally, even with the Gulf War still in the future, the jockeying for price and market share continued and by 1997, the world price of oil had stabilized at $20.50 per barrel. Daniel Yergin's great book, The Prize, should be read by those in need of further economic history.

To understand both the Arab politics and Saddam Hussein, one need first assume that the history of the Middle East has always been defined by personalities. In 1980, for example, the situation was dominated by Saddam Hussein and the Ayatolloah Khomeini. While Iraq launched the attack against Iran in !980, Khomeini had committed Iranians to a war he saw as religious, one Iran could not afford to lose. Khomeni was a head of state who did not have the mandate of a popularly elected leader, so Iranians had to treat the war as a crusade. Saddam Hussein did not have the mandate of a popularly elected leader either. In 1989, an Iraqi Samir AlKhalil, wrote a book, Republic Of Fear,which was published by the University of California Press. He goes a long way in describing why Iran was perceived as the loser of this war.

Whenever Iranians fought in defense of their homes and towns, in effective isolation from the clerical leadership, by all accounts they did well against vastly superior odds....The nature of the combat was such as to place life at a premium, and so tactics evolved that tended to guard it. When the clerics took over, the military conception changed dramatically. The idea became to use the occasion of war to prove how good a Muslim was; winning versus losing took on an entirely new meaning.

There was no Islamic definition of military strategy, but Khomeini and the other Iranian clerics simply used recruits that were driven in human wave attacks. They were mowed down. And dying from poison or nerve gas was quite different from invoking the mercy of Allah by hurling themselves on the Iraqis who shot them.

Hussein, however, was able to present himself as the embodiment of the state. In fact, he probably was the leader with no opposition within Iraq. His Baath Party had, at Hussein's orders, executed all those who might have threatened his role. Saddam Hussein had a ready-made enemy, Kuwait, an Arab state, and Iran, a Persian state. Iraq had a history of animosity; border disputes, ethnic differences, and religious differences. However, without any real mandate, Hussein had to find an alternative source of legitimacy, even though symbols were all he could offer. Nasser was an Egyptian symbol of Middle East leadership, even though his role ended with the Six Day War against Israel. Hussein saw himself as the new "leader" of the Middle East, ruling Iran as part of his kingdom, fighting a just war against a long time enemy. Hussein also had to find a secure role for his military; a foreign war against a traditional enemy would keep the military and its leadership occupied and reduce the chances of a military coup. Hussein also saw that his military had the best arms and weapons technology his oil income could buy. The French and German arms merchants were only too happy to sell Iraq the latest, including the plant capacity to build a nuclear weapon. Later Hussein would argue he wanted only nuclear power, not weapons.

In 1981, Israel was internationally condemned when its jets destroyed the French-manufactured Osiris nuclear reactor. Israeli jets may have the range to destroy Iran's new reactor being assembled by French experts in 1997 at Bushehr on the Persian Gulf coast. The Israelis must first satisfy themselves that this reactor is being used to produce weapons grade uranium. And Germany sold the wherewithal to use chemical warfare. Iraq used that horrifying weapon in the closing days of the Iran-Iraq War against Kurds and Iraqi Shiites. Near the end of this war, Iraq had launched more than 160 al-Hussein stretch Scuds against the Iranian capital of Iran. Hussein's search for an identity based on missile power had begun. By 1989, Hussein's engineers had assembled three of these Scuds and one other rocket to produce the three-stage Tamouz 1 "space launch vehicle." It had an estimated range of 250 miles. This missile caught intelligence agencies by surprise; they first saw it on Iraqi television.

The Iran-Iraq war ended in 1988 on terms favorable to Iraq However, it was a tremendous financial catastrophe for both sides, not to mention the terrible loss of life. An entire generation on both sides were killed. However, the war also solidified Iraq's position with the United States.

Two years later, the United States would regret this during the Persian Gulf War. That war began on August 2, 1990 when Iraqi armed forces crossed the border with Kuwait and occupied the entire country. In fact, Iraq annexed Kuwait as its 19th province. President George Bush began the slow expensive maneuver of assembling an Arab force led by the United States. During the period before ground forces became active in January, 1991, American military softened up the Iraq command and control facilities with "smart weapons" guided by on board computers. After a brief ground war, a cease fire agreement was signed on February 27, 1991. Hussein's attention was then directed against the Shiites and the Kurds. Personnel of the United Nations also went through all or nearly all Iraq's weapons warehouses or plants to find the missiles used by the Scuds and other longer range weapons plus evidence of a nuclear or chemical weapons capability. Because Iraq had launched no long range missiles attacks on Iran between August, 1987 and February, 1988 Saddam Hussein's claims were viewed with scepticism by Western observers. But following Iran's attack on Baghdad with three of the Scud Bs it had imported from North Korea on February 29, 1988, it rapidly became apparent that Hussein had spent the intervening months quietly building up, a sufficient stockpile of al Hussein missiles to make a major strategic impact on the course of the Iran-Iraq War. Over the following three weeks, Iraq fired nearly 200 al Hussein's at Teheran, Isfahan, and Qom, causing some 8000 casualties, about 2000 of them fatalities. The psychological effect of these attacks on ordinary Iranians were considerable -- nearly a quarter of the population of Teheran abandoned the city. This fact was one of the factors contributing to Iran's decision to sue for peace in July, 1988.

The end of the Persian Gulf War in 1991 saw the beginning of two trends in Asia and the Middle East. First, Saddam Hussein embarked on a voyage that was to rearm Iraq to the point it was the "heavy hitter" of the Middle East. Second, Hussein took all reasonable measures to conceal his purchase of arms at a time when, because of oil sale sanctions, he could not openly buy arms. See Security Council Resolution 661 of 1990 for text of sanctions. The text of the Decision Taken by the Security Council Committee established by Resolution 661 (1990) concerning the situation between Iraq and Kuwait in the discharge of its responsibilities under Security Council resolutions 706 (1991) and 712 (1991). Essentially, this document spelled out the procedures Iraq must follow if it wished to purchase humanitarian supplies. The money was to come from an escrow account administered by appointees of the Security Council.

Before the Allied Forces were put together by agents of then President George Bush, his Secretary of State, James Baker had toured the Arab world to drum up support for the attempt to oust Iraq from Kuwait. In his tour of the Middle East, Baker had promised the Arab states there would be a postwar conference leading up to a settlement of the Israeli-Arab conflict. On January 31, 1991 the United Nations General Assembly adopted its Resolution 45/68. Its language reached a level of international mendacity not previously considered. Both the United States and Israel voted against this resolution. It notes in part: "Aware of the ongoing uprising (intifadah) of the Palestinian people since 9 December 1987, aimed at ending Israeli occupation of Palestinian territory since 1967." The resolution referred to the status of the West Bank between 1949 and 1967. On the latter date, Jordanian troops were driven out of the West Bank which Jordan had occupied in violation of both international law and the United Nations Charter.

During the years between 1949 and 1967, Jordan never once took any action to comply with Resolution 181 (II), the Partition Resolution of 1948. Indeed, on April 15, 1951,Jordan announced its annexation of the West Bank as an extension of its Hashemite Kingdom. No polemicist, including Yasser Arafat has ever rationalized the Palestinian claim that the West Bank is "our land." The claim that this land was somehow converted from its status as territory occupied by Jordan to "territory occupied by Israel" is quite simply wrong. See Security Council Resolution 242 of November, 1967. Arab states that joined the U.S. led coalition in 1991 have breather a collective sigh of relief. Iraq agreed that American inspectors could resume work trying to ferret out the weapons hidden by Iraqis after the inspectors first left Iraq. The Arabs never liked Saddam Hussein who often forced Arabs to make disagreeable choices. When Hussein marched into Kuwait in 1990, Egypt, Syria, and Morocco sent troops to join the coalition. They were sent on the express word of James Baker, Secretary of State under President George Bush, that the Arab-Israeli dispute would receive the full and favorable attention of the United States. Some six years later, nothing much had happened. The Arab world sees that the United States as reneging on the agreement with respect to Israel. Arabs expected they would be rewarded for their cooperation by American pressure on Israel to reach lasting settlements with its neighbors.

On April 8, 1991 the Security Council adopted its Resolution 686. The full text of this resolution appears at 30 International Legal Materials 847 (1991). The Security Council Resolution 686 "demands that Iraq...

3(d)Provide all information and assistance in identifying Iraqi mines, booby traps and other explosives as well as any chemical and biological weapons and material in Kuwait, in areas of Iraq where forces of Member States cooperating with Kuwait pursuant to Resolution 678 (1990); and...

Security Council Resolution 687 picked up the language of Resolution 686. In part, it invited "Iraq to reaffirm unconditionally its obligations under the Geneva Protocol for the Prohibition of the Use in War of Asphyxiating, Poisonous or Other Gases, and of Bacteriological Methods of Warfare, signed at Geneva on 17 June 1925, and to ratify the Convention on the Prohibition of the Development, Production and Stockpiling of Bacteriological and Toxin Weapons and on their Destruction, of 10 April 1972." These are all obligation that were in existence before Iraq attacked Kuwait. This fact did not however, prevent Iraq from using poison gas in its war against Iran. Hussein did not hesitate to use mustard gas against Kurds in 1987.

On February 26, 1998 the New York Times published an article "How Iraq's Biological Weapons Program Came to Light" written by By William J. Broad and Judith Miller; a nightmarish and horrifying detail of how Iraq has plans for its Arab and Jewish neighbours.

Robert Gates, formerly Director of Central Intelligence , wrote an Op Ed piece in the New York Times for November 14, 1997. In part it read: "Since the end of the war, the Iraqis, trying to preserve their programs for chemical, biological weapons, have lied to United Nations inspectors and engaged in a deadly game of hide-and-seek. For diplomatic reasons, the United Nations has never fully revealed the extent of physical abuse and mistreatment of inspectors in Iraq. Nor has it fully revealed the extraordinary deception, subterfuge, trickery and obstructionism used by the Iraqis."

International arms sales did not begin or end with Iraq. In fact, the United States has the dubious distinction of being the world's largest arms seller. The Federation of American Scientists (FAS) monitors arms sales. Sales by the United States were as follows in the year indicated. $9. 36 billion (1991), $10.71 billion (1992), $10.68 billion (1993), $9.84 billion (1994), and $12.55 Billion (1995). In addition, American companies sold a total amount of arms during the same period of $17.36 billion. Russia sold $16,40 billion, France sold $8.70 billion, United Kingdom sold $24.10 billion, China sold $4.90 billion, Germany sold $7.80 billion, and Italy sold $1.2 billion in the period between 1991 and 1995.Third World countries around the world are lining up to qualify as purchasers using guidelines that have made sales by the Pentagon quite simple.

During the administration of President Ronald Reagan, his staff and others came up with the Missile Technology Control Regime. The MTCR is an informal, non-treaty association of states that had an established policy or interest in limiting the spread of missiles and missile technology. Its origins went back to the 1970s when the United States became aware of dangers posed by the missile programs of some developing nations. Several events, including South Korea's 1978 ballistic missile test, Iraq's attempt in 1979 to purchase retired rocket stages from Italy, India's July 1980 SLV3 test, and the former German firm OTRAC's 1981 testing of a rocket in Libya, contributed particularly to America's apprehensions. See: "Chronology of the Missile Technology Control Regime."

The MTCR has attempted to control weapons of mass destruction (WMD). The principal multilateral arms control regimes limiting WMD are the 1925 Geneva Protocol, the 1968 Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), the 1972 Biological Weapons Convention (BWC), and the 1993 Chemical Weapons Convention (CWC). Western governments may have helped slow the spread of WMD, but they have made only limited efforts to enforce compliance; unfortunately, the Western governments have sometimes chosen to accept violations. A glaring example of such acceptance of violations was Iraq's open use of CW against both Iran in its war with that country, but also against segments of the Iraqi population, i.e., Kurds and Shiites. One of the difficulties in enforcing limits on WMD is the fact that some of the components and the technologies are dual-use, that is, they may be used in both civilian and military programs. By 1998, one must assume that Iraq has all the missile technology it needs to threaten Europe, even the United States with missile attacks. In the Persian Gulf War, Iraq used the Scud missile successfully, and it would be foolish to assume they have not improved their missile technology and range. However, because of the secrecy factor, Iraq may have warheads containing any particular toxin used in chemical warfare. They're all deadly. Recent reports of the United Nations suggest that Iraq has some 16 ballistic missiles armed with biological warfare warheads in violation of sanctions imposed on Iraq. A CIA report on Iraq's pre1991 CBW capability noted:

...that Iraq worked to adapt a modified aircraft drop tank for biological agent spray operations in December, 1990. The tank could be attached to either a piloted fighter or to a remotely piloted aircraft that would be guided by another, piloted aircraft. The tank was designed to spray up to 2000 liters of anthrax on a target.

Along the same lines, other countries are well-advanced in producing chemical warfare components. In 1988, Libya built one of the largest chemical weapons plants in the world and has persistently pursued opportunities to acquire longer range missiles from North Korea. Iran could threaten all of Europe with missiles, having acquired the technology from China. Biological weapons may be produced from widely available pathogens; they are cheap and easy to obtain. In fact, even a facility like a brewery has the de facto capability to produce biological weapons, and these agents are weight-for-weight, thousands of times more potent than the most lethal chemical weapon.

In February 1998, Great Britain's Prime Minister Tony Blair visited Washington and held a joint press conference with President Clinton. Even before leaving London, the Foreign and Commonwealth Office (FCO) released a report listing what the United Nations Special Commission on Munitions (UNSCOMM) subject to inspection in Iraq. The list showed only what UNSCOMM had discovered between 1991, when the United Nations Security Council adopted Resolution 687 of April 3, 1991 and what had been destroyed. It is a list of the horribles and Saddam Hussein has now made a diplomatic solution virtually impossible by forbidding UN inspectors from inspecting sites in Iraq they are legally required to inspect. See http://www.britain-info.org/

President Clinton has sent three carriers to the Persian Gulf plus some 3,000 Marines and Great Britain has sent one aircraft carrier plus an unspecified number of ground forces. Saudi Arabia has refused to let its facilities be used for an attack against Iraq but Kuwait has a longer memory. Republicans in Congress are now looking for an end game, so American forces won't have to stay in the Middle east too long. Initially, Senator Trent Lott and some other Republicans seemed gung ho on the use of force against Iraq. However, they now seem less eager, thinking Clinton may be in the middle of l'affaire Lewinsky when he's needed most in his constitutional role as Commander-in-Chief of the armed force.

Once again changes are in the air. See http://www.un.org/NewLinks/mission.htm

See the ABC News story on "The CIA's Secret War Against Saddam"

All contents © 1998 William M. Brinton